Much like being pregnant or dead, it was either yes or no. There are several decisions which will be taken soon about the future of Europe and what Europe means geographically that are taking on much of that binary yes or no. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, one had expected the division of Europe to have ended. As Mrs. Merkel recently said before a summit of European leaders, “The Cold War should be over for everyone.”
Several former Soviet republics - Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus – have been invited to sign association agreements with the European Union. At the end of November, in a two-day meeting in Vilnius, decisions will be taken about whether these countries will move closer or not to the European Union. The alternative will be for the countries to join a nascent and expanding customs union with Russia that now includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.
While Mrs. Merkel was certainly correct to declare that the Cold War should be over, tensions have risen concerning how each country will react. The Russian Federation has exerted considerable pressure, including cutting off energy supplies and embargoing certain goods. No troops have been involved – we are, after all, post 1989 – but the economic tensions are very clear and the sides to be chosen most explicit. Although quite different from the “iron curtain” descending across Europe in Winston Churchill’s memorable 1946 speech in Fulton, Missouri, it is clear that economic sides with political ramifications are being taken. An economic confrontation between the European Union and the Russian Federation’s custom union could be on the horizon.
The dream of a united Europe, or at least a European security community proposed by Dmitri Medvedev, seems to be fading. The development of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in opposition to NATO is part of a developing curtain, not yet iron. Georgia and Ukraine are no longer realistic candidates to join NATO as promised in 2008. The European Union’s eastern expansion is being called into question, if not grinding to a halt.
The major country involved in the “tug-of-war” is Ukraine. Its president, Viktor Yanukovich, declares that he wants the country to move closer to Europe. And recent polls indicate that 45 percent of the population supports integration with Europe, 15 percent favors integration with Russia. However, the Ukrainian Parliament has just postponed a vote to allow the former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, to leave prison for medical treatment abroad. The fate of this one individual has been a major concern for many European leaders who have insisted it is a necessary condition to move forward with Ukraine’s European agreement. So, concerning Ukraine, both internally and externally there is hesitation in the choice of sides.
Switzerland is a neutral country in the heart of Western Europe. It continues to negotiate its status with the European Union, but there is no question of its becoming a member in the near future. For some of the former Soviet republics, neutrality is a theoretical possibility but not a practical one. The upcoming Vilnius summit will be a deciding moment for the countries and Europe. Behind the economic talks geopolitical lines are being drawn, perhaps not solidified into iron, but nonetheless more solid than a mere plastic curtain.