Restarted All Over Again

According to one CNN poll, I belong to the 6% of the Republican Party that preferred The Other Guy.  Together with much of Europe and Asia, Russia seems largely satisfied that we collectively have been spared a four-year encounter with yet another blow-dried cowboy wielding a quiver-full of banal slogans intended as thoughtful analysis and articulated policies.  Russia, for all her problems and faults, will not be the presidential administration’s Number One Geopolitical Foe for the foreseeable future.
 
So what does ‘more of the same’ mean for Moscow?  Ironically, the answer is probably very little.  Despite his ill-considered expressions of bluster, a Romney presidency would have likely adopted the same overall posture toward Russia as that of the Obama administration.  Russia is now a WTO member, meaning that all bilateral trade relations are regulated by the terms of Russia’s accession within the larger WTO architecture. And despite their aggressive rhetorical exchanges, the presidential candidates were largely unsuccessful in distinguishing their foreign policies – including with Russia – from one another.  Flash points such as Syria and human rights / opposition politics in Russia would have remained essentially without change – except for perhaps in nuance.  To the extent that Americans think about foreign policy, there is a broad national consensus that straddles the two major political parties.
 
Having been spared countless tongue-lashings from another Republican ideologue in the White House, the onus now seems to be on Russia to move things forward.  Unfortunately, I see a huge opportunity for missed signals at this juncture.  Russians are likely to misinterpret President Obama’s re-election as a tacit endorsement of Russia’s current choice of domestic and foreign policies.  Nothing, of course, could be further from the truth.  Americans took their electoral decision based almost exclusively on domestic economic factors.  Moscow in every sense was very far from their collective center of attention.
 
Going forward, the most prominent elements of Russian-American relations would seem to be Syria (bad) and global energy production and distribution (a mixed bag).  On the human rights front, there is a genuine disconnect.  The Russian and American mentalities apparently exist in parallel, non-intersecting universes.  Nearly half of the Russian population agrees that two-year sentences to harsh labour camps for the Pussy Riot protestors was justified.
 
Looking at the world from Moscow rather than New York or Washington, D.C., there are plenty of unresolved issues that Russians will need sort out for themselves.  America can play only a tangential role in coaxing Russians to develop a less commodities-based, more valued-added economic infrastructure, or to engage in a less confrontational and more productive domestic political dialogue.  Russia’s recent and abrupt curtailing of relations with Radio Liberty and USAID does not offer hope for an enhanced level of mutual understanding.
 
As an American, I am proud that my country is capable of electing a Barack Obama.  When will Russia elect its first Kalmyk, Tatar or Buryat president?  When will Russia’s chief rabbi or grand mufti become the most prominent religious figure on the domestic cultural horizon because of his confessional affiliation with Russia’s president and/or prime minister?  Or a Russian Margaret Thatcher, perhaps?
 
It would be inappropriate and condescending to insist that Russia develop along the lines of Europe or America – taking note, of course, of the myriad political-economic and cultural gaps between the Old and New Worlds.  But it is fair – even necessary – to hold Russia to measure against broadly accepted international standards of political, economic and societal discourse.
 
The problem is that for historical and cultural reasons Russians perceive even the most well-intended of coaxing from the West as meddlesome interference.  This conundrum leaves Western leaders such as President Obama with an extremely narrow array of options for productive interaction with Russia.  Presuming myself to be more than slightly familiar with the Russian mindset, I have little doubt that the psychological cues – the unstated messages – conveyed to Russians by President Obama are far more productive than Mr. Romney’s threats of more ‘backbone’ and ideological harangues.  That alone makes for a promising continuation to Restart.